The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) through its Election Analysis Centre (EAC) has said politicians are devising new and creative strategies to engage in vote trading.
The CDD-EAC said this on Friday in Abuja in its pre-election press conference on Saturday’s governorship and States Assembly elections.
The report was jointly presented by the Chair, CDD-EAC, Prof. Adele Jinadu; Executive Director, CDD, Idayat Hassan; member CDD-EAC, Mrs Ladi Bala; member EAC, Prof. Victor Adetula, and Executive Director, CISLAC, Mallam Auwal Musa Rafsanjani.
They said that though vote trading was less prominent during the February 25th presidential and National Assembly elections, politicians deviced new means of vote buying.
“Vote trading was less prominent during the presidential election but more creative, Food and material goods replaced cash in many instances, a practice that will be a feature of closely contested polls in Sokoto, Delta, Rivers and Zamfara states.
“However, this is in tandem with presidential races where vote trading is often limited when compared to governorship races which has seen vote trading feature prominently in successive elections. We encourage citizens to make their decision based on choice and not in exchange for goods or cash,” they said.
They also urged investigating authorities to act against those engaged in vote trading to bring sanity in the nation’s election processes.
The organization also tasked the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to learn key lessons from its conduct of the presidential poll of February 25 to improve the conduct of the state elections.
Prof. Adele Jinadu and CDD Director, Idayat Hassan said given that the polls have been delayed by a week, to give INEC time to reconfigure the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices, the commission now has sufficient time conduct better elections, which will be devoid of the earlier noticed flaws.
CDD expressed hope that the extra time INEC has had will translate into improved opening of polling units across the country, with those polling units fully equipped with the necessary voting materials to avoid scenarios observed in the presidential polls where voting continued well beyond the scheduled closing time.
They stressed that the functionality of the BVAS machines and improved use of the INEC results viewing platform (IReV) will also be critical for the credibility of the polls.
“Improved functionality will contribute to greater election results transparency, but this can still be undermined by compromised INEC officials and ad-hoc staff. The suspension of the RECs for Abia and Sokoto states for ’endangering the electoral process’ is welcome but points to the prevailing challenge that INEC officials and ad-hoc staff can be subject to the whims and caprices of state governments in ways that negatively impact voter confidence and the election’s credibility,” they said.
To ensure the breaches, which occurred during the presidential polls do not happen again, CDD also tasked INEC to reprimand and suspend those found to be colluding with political actors in their state, and support polling unit cancellations in such instances.
They said, “We encourage all ad-hoc INEC staff to abide by the commission’s code of conduct when carrying out their duties on election day and when announcing results. The prompt submission of polling unit results to IReV is critical and will support an improved perception of INECs performance. We also urge the Commission to be both proactive and responsive in its communication with voters.”
The CDD also urged INEC to avoid elongated periods of silence as this provides fuel for misinformation and disinformation to flourish.
While noting that there will be new governors in 17 states, regardless of the outcome of the polls due to term-limited incumbents who are ineligible to stand, the CDD, however stressed that such keen contests are likely to be sites for election-violence.
The organization listed ways violence could manifest to include voter intimidation, ballot box snatching and the destruction of election materials.
It said, “States that will hold gubernatorial polls with the most incidents of political violence since 1 January 2023 according to the Nigeria Election Violence Tracker are Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Delta and Anambra –with Kano the States with the most recorded deaths as a consequence at 20”.
“Osun, Imo and Ebonyi have also seen a number of incidents in the past three months that could disrupt State house of assembly polls taking place in the state. In total, 109 deaths linked to political violence have been recorded from the start of the year to 10 March 2023 according to the tracker.”
Based on its mapping, CDD predicted that violence linked to the States elections could worsen due to the activities of armed groups quasi-security outfits.
READ ALSO: CDD: How decreased trust in INEC, violence and vote buying blighted 2023 polls.
It said, “Groups such as Yan Sakai, the Civilian Joint Task Force, Neighbourhood Watch, Amotekun and Ebubeagu have been, and can be, armed and deployed by state governors and their allies to perpetrate electoral violence or suppress voter turnout, particular in areas of strong opposition support.” Apart from these outfits, CDD noted the presence of the more conventional political thugs, paid to disrupt polls or intimidate political opponents, as a threat to these elections.
“The insecurity they create itself portends dangers for the ability to conduct credible elections, increases the likelihood of inconclusive results and, ultimately, the need for supplementary elections. Bauchi, Kano, Rivers, and Sokoto all faced this scenario in 2019, with a high risk of repeat in 2023,” CDD said.
On the outcome of the elections, CDD observed that most political parties and online commentaries have erroneously projected similar results to the presidential results of 25th February in the distribution of governorship seats.
It said, “But these projections fail to adequately consider the senate and house of representatives’ results, which did not always go along the same line as the presidential outcome.”
Given the split voting, which characterized the presidential election, the CDD stressed the need for political actors to ensure they do not depend on outsized expectations with respect to the outcomes.
The group alluded to the results from the recent presidential elections, which have also thrown up what it described as new but important dynamics of split voting. It said, “After the 25th February elections, 11 states elected a majority of their national assembly delegations from an opposite party to the candidate they voted for president. Nine of those eleven states will be electing governors tomorrow and nuanced analysis will provide better understanding of how the results might go.”
