Although the dust is yet to settle on the conduct of the off cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi States, the valiant efforts of civil society organizations to change the narrative of flawed elections have continued to shape the electoral space. In the build up to the off cycle elections, proactive civic think tanks anchored their advocacy on the realization that the fallouts and challenges, which dogged the 2023 general elections could further impact robust participation through such realities like voter apathy or lack of interest on the part of historically marginalized groups.
It was apparent that a number of the factors, which undermined the credibility and by extension, the acceptability of the 2023 general elections, would again feature prominently in shaping key processes and outcomes of the off cycle elections.
As encapsulated in the framework put forward by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), the nuanced interpretation of issues, which shaped the general elections showed up again. There was therefore no mistaken the debilitating roles played by identity, insecurity, institutions, intra and inter-party squabbles, as well as information disorder in shaping the buildup and aftermath in the three off cycle states.
Like the quaint Hegelian notion, which alludes to history repeating itself, first as tragedy, and subsequently as farce, the electoral process, as dominated by the untoward roles of the political actors, again produce several unacceptable outcomes, such the widespread use of disinformation targeting voters and key institutions of the State, the role of vote buying and commodification of the sacred power of the electorate, and desperate manipulations by political actors with the sinister objective of arriving at predetermined partisan outcomes.
Notwithstanding these odds, CDD through its Election Analysis Centre (EAC) proactively engaged relevant stakeholders to support and strengthen the democratic process. Of utmost importance was the work of the Centre in the form of the long term observation of the key issues in the build up to the elections.
CDD blazed the trail by recognizing and taking action to address the clear and present danger posed by the spread of fake news, misinformation and disinformation in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi States. To ensure these anomalies, collectively reffered to as information disorder do not undermine the free and democratic choices of voters, the group conducted an assessment of the information ecosystem in the off cycle states.
A critical part of the effort to counter disinformation was the need for robust media literacy wherein, citizens in various localities within the offcycle states were equipped with the basic knowledge of how to identify all shades of misinformation, and disinformation. The combination of technology and traditional information channels such as word of mouth was critical in ensuring a broad reach.
Technological solutions such as the Meedan Check helped CDD fact checkers receive claims across the three states, and systematized data collection in order to better inform citizens. However, knowing that technology is no silver bullet, which would exclusively deal with massive disinformation machine fact checkers are up against, CDD observation effort also introduced the innovation known as the soldiers of mouth.
The soldiers of mouth worked as community information experts, whose efforts were critical in spotting disinformation, and subsequently disseminating accurate information through pre-existing community structures.
Supported by media literacy programs on radio, the soldiers acted as a counterweight to bad actors, apparently sponsored by politicians to spread of disinformation, as a strategy to win the political advantage, and by extension the elections, at all cost.
While monitoring the information ecosystem and countering disinformation, CDD EAC election observers deployed across the three off cycle states also sent in treasure troves of data to analysts in Abuja.
The findings of the EAC analysts, based on data collected from the field focused on the broader context of the economic, political and sociocultural environment, which not only framed the polls, but continued to pose challenges for the country’s competitive party and electoral politics.
Final report signed by the EAC Chairman, Professor Adele Jinadu stressed that such factors in the electoral process, have in recent years, progressively constituted more disturbingly than before, fetters on the country’s electoral democracy, despite limited success in sanitizing the country’s electoral process.
The CDD EAC noted that based on its findings, the major message from its observation of the polls is the need to separate the unpredictable technical failures that are due to the operational, logistical and infrastructure challenges of electoral administration in the country on the one hand from the politically instigated failures attributable in the main to deliberate manipulation by candidates, political parties and their proxies in state and society on the other hand.
Providing further insights based on its data, the CDD EAC said the biggest challenge shaping the narrative in elections is how is how to unscramble the nexus connecting technical to politically motivated failures with a view to enhancing the integrity of elections in the country.
On how political actors abused the power of incumbency to manipulate the electoral process, the EAC was of the view that the abuse of the power of incumbency for unfair partisan electoral advantage by the governing parties in the three states was a major factor posing challenge to the conduct of election in the country. It said: “The abuse of incumbency takes any or all of the following forms – unequal access of opposition parties to state electronic media, the deployment of state resources, such as official state vehicles and staff for electioneering campaigns and the mobilization of voting banks by parties in power in the three states, and the denial of the display of bill boards, the denial of access to campaign facilities and public spaces by opposition parties to convey their messages to the electoral by signage authorities. These remain major fetters on the conduct of the three off-cycle elections that satisfied the conditions for electoral integrity.”
The EAC also noted the impact of the abuse of the power of incumbency, which manifested in the unfair playing ground that gravely diminished the credibility of the off-cycle elections in the three states.
Subsequently, the CDD EAC weighed in on the issue of identity and how it shaped the off cycle polls. Its perspective was that identity as a factor in the elections assumed different forms. It noted that “in one sense identity assumed the form of the ethnic configuration in the three states.
In Kogi State, for example, while the retiring incumbent governor ensured not only that the ruling party nominated a candidate from his ethnic group in the state, the other major parties chose candidates from other ethnic groups, hoping to cash in on the claim that the next governor must come from their own ethnic groups.
“Another form identity played out was as geographical or zonal Identity. In Bayelsa State, for example, the APC campaigned on the claim that the Eastern Zone of the State should produce the next Governor.
In Imo State, the PDP based its campaign on the Governorship returning to the Owerri Zone, on equity grounds, while LP staked a claim for the Okigwe Zone. This particular form of identity politics as geographical identity or zoning draws on the federal character clauses of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution. Another version of the identity politics is the gender consideration that influenced the choice of female deputy governorship candidates by the APC candidate for Governor in Imo State and PDP in Kogi States.
The challenge of identity politics when it is used to mobilise political support is the tendency for it to descend into ethnic profiling, ethnic hate speech and the tendency for the political mobilization of ethnicity to descend into violent ethno political conflict.” Providing further insights on the other factors, which shaped the polls, the CDD EAC mentioned the observed cases of inducement of voters, especially in the form of vote-buying and vote-selling.
The renowned think tank said its observers reported incidents of inducement of voters in (a) Bayelsa State, where in some polling units in the Southern Ijaw LGA, wrappers and rice were allegedly distributed to voters in addition to monetary inducements, (b) Imo State, where party agents allegedly offered voters cash incentives and, more worryingly, where INEC ad-hoc staff allegedly received money from party agents in PU 7, Ehime-Mbano LGA; and (c) Kogi State, where the LGA Chairman of Igalamela-Odudu was arrested with wads of cash and bullets on his person.
“The elections in the three states were conducted against a history of political conflict occasioned by cultism, insurgencies and separatist agitations. Against this background, the prospects of insecurity were a major source of concern before and during the elections.
The elections witnessed the following incidents of violence: (a) an alleged ballot snatcher being shot and killed in Dekina LGA in Kogi State;(b) another person was shot dead in Famgbe Community in Yenegoa LGA, Bayelsa; and (c) a violent altercation in a collation centre in Imo State, where a group of other party agents pounced upon and violently attacked another party agent who was complaining about the conduct of elections in the state.”
On the positive side, the CDD EAC noted that the security agencies appear to have secured the electoral process on Election Day. It however noted that the role of political parties remains a major cog in the conduct of free and fair elections in the country.
“Their failure to manage inter-party and intra-party disputes amicably and democratically is a major factor that generates violent electoral conflict with ripple effect on the politically generated failures of the electoral process.” The CDD EAC concluded by drawing attention to the the upshot of EAC’s observations on the central role of institutions in the broader context of the electoral history of Nigeria since 1999.
It stressed that the conduct and outcome of the off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Kogi and Imo States more or less mirrors the urgent need to reform Nigeria’s political parties in ways that will see them play a more responsible role as the sentinel not a problem for electoral democracy in Nigeria.
