The immediate and remote causes of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and how to de-escalate the conflict, formed the focus of a recent online conversation convened by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) and the School of International Studies, America. The panelists bemoaned the destruction caused by the war, and the refugee crisis it has precipitated. There was also apprehension about the threat of nuclear warfare, especially as Russian President Vladimir Putin had already placed his country’s nuclear deterrent forces on combat alert. Moderated by Austin Aigbe of the CDD, the conversation featured other panelists including Prof Carl Levan from the United States, Anatasiyi Perevezentsava from Ukraine, Nicole Grajewshi from Russia and Prof Carl Oshodi Nigeria.
Speaking on the factors responsible for the war, Anatasiyi expressed the view that it was due to the fact that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had always had an obsession with Ukraine. The panelist expressed the view that Putin has an even bigger goal of recreating the defunct Soviet Union by uniting the countries in the former Soviet bloc. This it was noted, is behind the Russian President’s refusal to recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty and democracy. Anatasiyi added that President Putin had miscalculated about Ukraine’s desire to be liberated from Russian interference both politically and economically. She said Russia has steadily attacked on Ukraine’s government since 2014. She said Russia had always engaged in disrupting Ukrainian protests and political activities in a bid to be involved in the internal politics of the country. This she noted runs contrary to the fundamental tenets of international relations.
Another reason established by the panelists for the outbreak of the conflict was that peace talks between both countries did not yield results. It was noted that all diplomatic processes and protocols applied seemed to prove futile and the lack of agreement between them brought about the war. On her part, Nicole contributed to the conversation by pointing out the ongoing conflict was the outcome of a long and deliberate process. She Added that President Putin had always been resistant to efforts of the Ukrainian people to change pro-Russia regimes. She said Russia had always displayed strength over countries that broke out from the Soviet Union, just as it intervened in the war in Syria as ways to stamp its footprint as one of the world power.
In this sense, it was argued that Russia had always had a plan and that it was preparing for war for a long time. On the question of possible ways to end the hostilities, Nicole called for the sustenance of the solidarity among Russian protesters who are on the streets raising their voices against the war. She said although the protesters were being arrested and brutalized, their actions would go a long way to put pressure on the Russian government as it would not go against the wishes of its people indefinitely. The panelist also called for the use of diplomacy in disrupting China-Russia relations as Russia is banking on China’s support to bail her from the sanctions slammed against it. It was reckoned that Putin may be forced to abandon the war if Russia’s relationship with China is threatened.
On his part, Carl Levan was of the view that the raft of sanctions was in order, just as he urged humanitarian support to Ukraine. While applauding Kenya’s decision to stand with Ukraine, he noted that the United States was in a somewhat difficult position despite its unalloyed support for Ukraine. Levan pointed out that this was the case because the military strength of the US is strained as it just withdraw military forces and weaponry from Afghanistan. As for the position of the African continent, the possible role of the more influential powers like Nigeria was scrutinized. Prof. Oshodi stated that the country may not be able to play an active role in the war because the country is faced with its own challenges, ranging from underdevelopment, to terrorism. It was however stressed that the Nigerian government would stand solidly for democracy and for peace in Ukraine.
