As the military junta in Niger Republic continues to make claims that Nigeria is in a coalition with France to destabilize it, international affairs and information integrity analysts have weighed in on the diplomatic spat. They described the claims and counterclaims between Nigeria and Niger Republic as a situation, which if not amicably resolved, could have wider implications for regional stability. Part of the implication is what has been described as an elaborate Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) campaign, which if not countered could get many citizens at the local levels disinformed about the real intentions of the Nigerian authorities.
The latest verbal war between the two neighbours was started off, when leader of the Niger junta, General Abdourahamane Tchiani claimed on State television that the Nigerian government was in cahoots with France to destabilise the former French colony through a proxy terrorist group, the Lakurawa. Tchaini, who spoke in the Hausa language, was quoted to have said there was a proposal, which Nigerian authorities were aware of, to use the Gaba forest near Sokoto as a training ground for terrorists to destabilize Niger.
These allegations have been vehemently denied by the Nigerian Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris. The controversy is happening as the alliance of Sahelian States made of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso finalize plans to exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). A global affairs analyst, Paul Ejime has described the outburst from the Niger junta as a case of the authorities in Niamey being in a state of paranoia.
He said since the coup in the former French colony and the subsequent diplomatic pressure, the Nigerien authorities suspect anything and everything happening in countries where the coup was denounced. Speaking on a Television Continental news and current affairs program, Ejime noted that even when the authorities in Niger see a fly flying across, they begin to suspect.
His words: “Here, we have a complicated case for Nigeria. Nigeria is the headquarters of ECOWAS; President Tinubu is the current Chair of the Authority of Heads of States. At the same time, they (Niger authorities) have also seen some diplomatic moves between Nigeria and France when President Tinubu visited France in what was presented as a very high-profile visit. President Tinubu also goes there because France is his preferred destination for medical treatment. All these put together is what is giving authorities in Niger some concern.”
Ejime however stressed that there is a difference between the relationship between President Tinubu and Emmanuel Macron and the official relationship. He said based on the official state to state relationship the authorities and institutions in Nigeria will not approve of a military base, let alone, a French military base in Nigeria.
“I say so because such a decision will boomerang and will affect Nigeria the more because Nigeria is the largest country in the region and it has more to lose. I think the Niger Junta is just trying to cry wolf or cause distraction. I think the Sahel states feel rattled; they think there could be some underhand or secret agenda. These are just conjecture, wherein they believe that the relationship (between Nigeria and France) could extend to the point where Nigeria could allow itself to be used.
“It is highly unlikely, and I know that diplomatically, politically, economically and in all areas, Nigeria has a lot to lose if it goes that route. It is diplomatically unthinkable because it will amount to political suicide. And economically, Nigeria stands to suffer because if there is a war that breaks out now, it will affect everyone. Remember, when ECOWAS made the mistake of saying they were going to war.”
Similarly, the Regional Advocacy Lead for the West Africa Democracy Solidarity Network (WADEMOS), Aigbe Omoruyi noted that the Niger junta was playing mind games, and that the Federal Government needed to proactively fact-check what appears like information manipulation coming from the Niger junta.
“What Niger Republic appears to be doing is what is known as mind games with the understanding that President Tinubu’s recent visit to President Macron will send the wrong signal to them. What they are trying to do now is to engage in some form of information disorder, in terms of disinformation, which will push Nigeria to a corner in case if Nigeria truly wants to do it, Nigeria may want to soft-pedal. What Nigeria needs to do is to fact-check the claims and make it clear that as of this moment, France does not have a military base in Nigeria.”
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On his part, Executive Director of the Grassroots Centre for Rights & Civic Orientation, Armsfree Ajanaku, has urged civic actors to work towards a resilient information environment. He said with the constant wave of disinformation from the Sahel, people in grassroots communities are vulnerable to all forms of information manipulation, particularly those sponsored by state actors. He said it is imperative to prepare communities to robustly counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), which is becoming rampant in the ECOWAS region.
He said: “Beyond the reactive strategies, we are seeing from the Nigerian government and by extension, ECOWAS, there is the urgent need to build up the minds of citizens to enable them understand the role information manipulation is playing in the geo-political tensions enveloping ECOWAS. If you follow the Niger junta leader’s remarks, he made them in Hausa. This is clearly an attempt to influence the Hausa speakers on the Nigerian side.
“Grassroots communities on the Nigerian side have heard his message loud and clear and there is apparently no robust alternative perspective on this issue, apart from the reaction of the Nigerian government. There is therefore a valid case for countering FIMI measures and responses. These will give the people on the ground the true picture of things. If not, they will be disinformed and exposed to the manipulation of peddlers of FIMI. We also need relentless fact-checking in the local language,” he said.
