The serene Southern Sun, located on the tree-lined boulevards of Sandton, Johannesburg played host to the scholars, researchers, journalists and information integrity experts, focused on China influence. The activity was the three-day China In the World Summit (CITW) convened by Double Think Lab, which provided the space for fact checkers, information integrity experts and pro-democracy think tanks around the world to engage in an intense and insightful conversations on the expansion of Chinese influence. The crux of the conversation was the need to spotlight trends, patterns and impacts of China’s ballooning influence across the globe.
Through a diverse range of panel discussions, workshop sessions and lightening talks participants found entry points to interrogate China influence, not just from the jaded prism of development aid, but also in terms of the less talked about implications for democracy, human rights and participatory governance. Looming large in the conversation were the fundamental issues of how Chinese influence across several domains in the international arena, is shaping policies, mindsets and perspectives in target countries.
While it was noted that foreign policy is usually shaped by countries trying to project their national interest, the cautionary tale with China’s burgeoning influence largely focused on the details of how its tactics and strategic outcomes undermine democratic values, human rights and ultimately the long term political and economic freedoms of countries, which are the targets of China influence.
DoubleThink Lab, through its China Index has adopted an approach, which brings data to the fore in conversations about China influence. Of course, the hope is that by spotlighting China influence, countries being heavily focused on will eventually “smell the coffee,” make the right adjustments and find the balanced required to engage with China. Importantly, one of the outcomes of the CITW conversations is for countries to be on the alert such that when China influence starts heading in the direction that undermines basic democratic freedoms, sovereignty and the well-being of citizens, such countries will be ready to respond appropriately.
The 2024 CITW Summit distilled ideas and perspectives through a mixture of plenary and dedicated briefing sessions, which were divided into various tracks. There were different meeting rooms, which allowed for sessions to go on simultaneously and to capture the diversity of issues generated by the key focus on China influence. Subsequently, through a sneak preview, the initial outcomes of the China Index for 2024, especially the nine domains of influence, and the 11 indicators used to collect the data and reach conclusions, were shared at the Summit.
Although the China Index for 2024 has not been released officially, a short overview of the findings was presented at the plenary session. Out of the 100 countries reviewed in 2024, Pakistan and Cambodia were rated as the countries most influenced by China. In Africa, Nigeria was reported to be the fourth most influenced globally, just as it emerged as the number one most influenced country by China on the continent of Africa.
Next up was a panel conversation with the topic Introducing the China Index 2024 and Examining Global Power Shifts in Africa and BRICS. The conversation looked at China’s influence in Africa and BRICS’ rise, examining its impact on global governance and what was described as shifting power dynamics. Panellists agreed that the BRICS coalition—consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—continues to gain global influence, challenging the dominance of Western-led institutions and advocating for a multipolar world order. It was stated that with significant economic resources and a shared vision for reforming global governance, BRICS while presenting opportunities for emerging markets, also raises critical concerns and challenges for the international community. As more countries seek to join BRICS, the panel experts from the fields of international relations, economics, and security, explored the challenges associated with BRICS across different regions.
One issue raised is how China has been involved in coordinated inauthentic behaviour. Worries were also expressed that Chinese influence was also growing across the world, especially in Africa, in the areas of law enforcement. An example of this growing influence in law enforcement was the case of a Chinese police station, reportedly opened in Benin City, Edo State, South-South Nigeria. China has also been noted to be putting a lot of efforts into increased assistance focusing on military and security surveillance. There was also the point about how the Chinese have been quick to use anti-United States and International Monetary Fund (IMF) protests, which rocked Nigeria and Kenya recently, as a basis to launch malign influence and disinformation campaigns themed around the notion that democracy is failing. These campaigns have been said to push narratives about how Africa needs to look for an alternative model of development like what the model adopted by the Chinese.
The other important conversation was the rivalry between China and India in the BRICS. Panellists canvassed the view that because Russia has emerged as the most sanctioned country in the world, it was looking for opportunities to create allies. India with its growing economy has therefore emerged as a counterweight within the BRICS. This is partly responsible for the divergent perspectives over the issue of adopting a common currency. Apparently, other BRICS countries do not want to accept the Russian Roble as the common currency.
India’s economy was reckoned to be growing in leaps and bounds, and based on this trajectory, India sees itself in a good position to address its age-long issues of inequality and poverty. Because of these dynamics, India is not keen to sign up to the hegemonic narratives, which have become associated with China. The perspective therefore is that India would stay in the BRICS to show that there is the possibility of a third option in shaping a multipolar, sustainable and inclusive world. This perspective is in favour of a global system, which should not just be focused on the choice of either the United States or China. The Indian thinking is much more towards the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which was the approach the global South adopted during the Cold War.
Another interesting issue was the discussion among the panellists about how China is using both online and offline media. It was stressed that China has been able over time to influence production, distribution and infrastructural development. Panellists worried that social media posts by Chinese diplomats and journalists increasing show public opinion being aggressively manipulated to suit Chinese goals. China influence in the media also takes the form of use of local media outlets, and the spread of conspiracy theories and disinformation to make Chinese initiatives have the most visibility and influence.
In terms of geo-strategic influence, panellists drew attention to noticeable increase in the use of Chinese war ships for joint naval exercises in Africa. There was also extensive conversation focused on how the consolidation of Chinese friendship and relationship with South Africa is apparently responsible for the closure of the Taiwan Embassy in Pretoria and its downgrading to a trade office based in Johannesburg. Although the Taiwan Embassy has resisted the push to move them to Johannesburg, there is unanimity that one sinister dimension of China influence is to leverage on its burgeoning influence in Africa to exert maximum pressure on the South African government. Such realities as China praising South Africa over the downgrading of the Taiwan status were pointed as indicators of the unrelenting diplomatic pressure, which would continue.
In the context of West Africa, the China Index data indicates an increase in junketing, in the specific aspect of journalists and politicians traveling to China. This equally coincides with a spike in development assistance from China and Chinese training for diplomats. Panellists drew attention to the fact that these activities are happening side by side with the massive investments the Chinese are making in digital infrastructure, such as 4G and 5G. Example was given of Tanzania where the previous President was not so close to China. But under the current President, China has projected its growing influence to the point that Tanzania is now one of China’s big trading partners.
In Sierra Leone, the Chinese influence is described as huge. The panellists noted that China has been very persuasive when it comes to the topic of having in place a fair and inclusive international communications system. It was stated that the international communication system being proposed by China has been portrayed as one, which will be open to everybody unlike the ones dominated with colonial ideas. Panellists identified China’s anti-colonial rhetoric as one of the narratives, it has deployed to consolidate its influence in Africa. As such, China has repeatedly made the point that it is not and will never be a colonial power. This has been accepted unquestioningly by political actors on the African continent.
With the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) being one of the most talked about issues at the summit, the question of how corruption affects Chinese development assistance was surely an interesting one to follow. The session titled; Fighting Corruption at Home but “Encouraging” It Abroad? China’s BRI Corruption Tales in Uganda provided a window into the effects of corruption on BRI. The presenter described how corruption concerns persist, undermining economic progress and development. Two cases of how Uganda engages with China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with corruption being a major issue in the project were analysed. The first case involves a $500,000 bribe paid by Patrick Ho, an aide to the Communist Party of China (CCP), to Sam Kutesa, who was then Uganda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, to secure favourable conditions for Chinese interests in Uganda. The second case explored what is described as the corrupt practices of the China International Water and Electric Corporation (CWE), a Chinese State-Owned Enterprise (SOE), which, despite its involvement in unethical activities, secured increased investment opportunities through the favour of Uganda’s president.
Through these cases, the presenter took interrogated China’s long-standing claim of adhering to a “non-interference” policy in its international dealings. It was therefore argued that Chinese SOEs are not independent actors but are accountable to the Chinese state, making their engagement in corrupt practices abroad effectively state-sponsored. The lesson for countries in Africa is that such activities not only undermine the development of host countries but also contradict China’s proclaimed efforts to combat corruption on the global stage. The point was also made that despite Beijing’s recent crackdown on corrupt practices at home, the Chinese government has done little to hold SOE representatives accountable for their actions overseas. The presenter therefore drew attention to what was described as the less visible consequences of Chinese investments in Africa, challenging the dominant narrative in both Africa and Beijing that China’s presence on the continent has been solely developmental.
Importantly, data shows that the Belt and Road Initiative has funded 3000 projects around the world with 150 countries and four continents benefiting. 1243 loans have been secured with 49 African governments participating, especially as the loans have been strategically aligned to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the point about corruption and unethical environmental practices are said to persist. Added to the mix, remains the age-old question of unsustainable debt. The conclusion therefore focuses on the need for greater accountability and transparency in Chinese development assistance, as well as effective value for money analysis.
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On a positive note however, a scholarly paper titled China in Mozambique: A Long-standing Relationship Between Old Friends examined the motivations behind China’s engagement in Mozambique, as well as the benefits and challenges for Mozambique in maintaining this relationship. The presenter explored the historical, economic, and political dimensions of the enduring relationship between China and Mozambique. The bond between these two nations, he noted dates to Mozambique’s struggle for independence, during which China provided military and diplomatic support.
The paper pointed out that over the decades, this friendship has evolved into a multifaceted partnership, with China playing a crucial role in Mozambique’s development through investments in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture. Through an analysis of trade agreements, development projects, and cultural exchanges, the session threw light on how this bilateral relationship continues to shape Mozambique’s path to economic growth and its position in the global arena.
Nonetheless CITW 2024 did not end without a conversation on the human rights violations China has been accused of perpetrating against the Uyghurs. Some Uyghur activists talked of the violations to include forced labor, detention in concentration camps and the various programs aimed at eradicating Uyghurs culture and identity. The Uyghurs were reported to be incarcerated in their multitude in concentration camps. Also raised was the issue of Uyghur genocide, and the need for the world to bring their issues to the forefront human rights discussions.
