THE 29th of January 2025 may well be remembered as the official birthday of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), the confederation formed by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. This date marks their full withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The Explainer gathered that this withdrawal is not just an administrative decision but a symbol of growing divisions in West Africa, where historical alliances are giving way to new geopolitical alignments.
The Explainer noted that the journey to this point began in early 2024, when the three military-led governments announced their intention to leave ECOWAS. The declaration came after months of strained relations between the juntas and the regional bloc, primarily over issues of security, governance, and foreign influence.
ECOWAS had initially imposed severe sanctions on these nations following military coups that overthrew civilian governments. These sanctions, later lifted in an attempt to prevent their departure, had already inflicted significant economic hardship. Despite diplomatic efforts, the three countries remained steadfast in their resolve, accusing ECOWAS of serving Western interests—particularly those of France—rather than prioritising regional security.
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Their concerns were not without basis. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2024, Burkina Faso experienced a 68% increase in deaths from terrorism, despite a 17% decrease in attacks. This escalation has positioned Burkina Faso as the country most impacted by terrorism globally. Neighbouring Mali and Niger also saw deteriorations in their terrorism indices during the same period.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that, as of June 2024, the combined number of forcibly displaced individuals in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger exceeded 3.4 million. This figure includes approximately 550,000 refugees and asylum-seekers.
The governments of these nations have expressed dissatisfaction with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), citing an inadequate response to the escalating security crisis. This discontent has prompted them to pursue alternative alliances to address their security challenges more effectively.
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The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States signals a shift in regional power dynamics. The Explainer gathered that this confederation, officially declared in September 2024, is built on a shared vision of military cooperation, economic self-reliance, and reduced dependence on Western institutions.
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger now lean towards partnerships with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, embracing military and economic collaborations outside the ECOWAS framework. The Explainer noted that Russia, in particular, has expanded its influence in the region, providing military support and security training as the three nations turn away from France.
The departure of these three nations shrinks ECOWAS to 12 member states, raising questions about the bloc’s effectiveness and future unity. With a combined population of approximately 72 million people and vast natural resources, including uranium in Niger and gold in Mali and Burkina Faso, the AES nations hold strategic importance.
The Explainer learned that despite their formal exit, ECOWAS has chosen to maintain some economic ties. In a statement on Wednesday, the bloc confirmed that citizens of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger would still benefit from the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) and retain visa-free movement across the region. However, political tensions remain, and future cooperation is uncertain.
